Turkey, under the leadership of President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, is a country with a rich historical background. Emerging from the collapsing Ottoman Empire, which spanned three continents and ruled over the Islamic world as well as parts of Europe, Turkey reflects a blend of influences from East and West, Christianity and Islam, and modernity and tradition. While maintaining a close partnership with the West through NATO and deepening trade relations with the EU, Turkey has also experienced tensions due to democratic backsliding and disagreements with Western powers.
Erdogan and his AKP party, which has conservative and Islamist roots, came to power in 2002 during a period of political instability and financial crisis in Turkey. The AKP implemented economic and political reforms to align the country with EU standards, resulting in significant economic growth, averaging 7.5 percent annually between 2001 and 2011. In terms of foreign policy, the AKP pursued a strategy known as “zero problems with neighbors,” aiming to expand Turkey’s influence through trade partnerships, democratic promotion, and the assertion of its Islamic identity.
However, in the late 2000s, the AKP started exhibiting more authoritarian tendencies. It established control over media outlets, conducted removals in the military targeting perceived dissidents, prosecuted, and imprisoned critics, and suppressed protests. Taking advantage of an attempted military coup in 2016, Erdogan further cracked down on his perceived opponents, accusing them of being led by Fethullah Gulen, an exiled cleric in the United States who was once Erdogan’s ally. Through a subsequent referendum in 2017, Erdogan transformed Turkey’s parliamentary system into a presidential one, abolishing the office of prime minister and consolidating power in himself. Erdogan has pursued an assertive foreign policy aimed at expanding Turkey’s military and diplomatic presence. This has involved military interventions in countries like Azerbaijan, Iraq, Libya, and Syria, as well as supplying drones to partners such as Ethiopia and Ukraine. Additionally, Turkey has established Islamic schools abroad as part of its broader foreign policy objectives.
In May 2023, Turkey is preparing for another five-year term under Erdogan, with his AK Party-led alliance holding a parliamentary majority. His reelection will provide a stable period without elections, except for municipal elections scheduled in ten months. This continuity is expected to bring political stability to Turkey, though it also signifies a centralized decision-making process. However, this term can also serve as an opportunity for Turkey to address its economic challenges by adopting more credible and conventional economic policies, setting strong benchmarks, and implementing crucial structural reforms. By doing so, Turkey could attract foreign capital, particularly given the current state of other emerging markets.
Currently, the Turkish economy faces significant problems, including high inflation and low currency reserves resulting from a controlled exchange rate regime. Unconventional policies have not yielded high growth rates or boosted exports. Urgent attention is needed to address these economic issues. Erdogan’s victory remarks indicated his determination to provide a stronger economic roadmap. It is crucial for him and the new government to restore confidence in the Turkish economy, both for domestic and foreign investors. With a competent economic team and more conventional and independent policies, this goal is attainable.
Regarding regional energy policies, no significant shifts are expected, and current policies are likely to continue. The new cabinet’s announcements, expected to occur soon, will shed more light on the government’s priorities, with the early indications suggesting a strong focus on the economy.
On May 14, 2023, Turkey will hold a consequential election that could shape the country’s domestic trajectory, regional dynamics, and the global balance of power. For the first time in Erdogan’s two-decade rule, he faces a formidable challenge from an anti-Erdogan majority and a united opposition bloc. This highly polarized atmosphere will provide Turkish citizens an opportunity to express their views on various issues, including Erdogan’s economic policies, regional affairs, and the government’s response to recent natural disasters. The election will determine whether Erdogan’s mandate continues or if the opposition coalition, promising a return to the rule of law and a parliamentary system, will be given a chance.
Erdogan’s agenda can change over time based on various factors such as domestic and international developments, political considerations, and public sentiment. Erdogan has consistently emphasized the importance of political stability in Turkey. He may continue to pursue policies aimed at consolidating his power and maintaining control over the government. He has placed a significant emphasis on economic development, particularly in infrastructure projects and industrial growth. He may continue to prioritize economic initiatives to boost employment, attract investment, and increase Turkey’s global economic competitiveness. Erdogan has been an active player in regional affairs, particularly in the Middle East. He may continue to pursue policies aimed at expanding Turkey’s influence in the region and promoting its interests in conflicts such as those in Syria and Iraq. He has initiated various reforms in Turkey, particularly in the areas of judiciary, education, and civil society. He may continue to push for reforms aligned with his political agenda and vision for the country. Erdogan has had a complex relationship with several countries and international organizations. He may continue to engage in diplomacy, both regionally and globally, to pursue Turkey’s national interests and strengthen its position in the international arena.
Tayyip Erdogan’s prospective agenda, along with the evolving global order, can be subject to change due to numerous factors, including geopolitical dynamics, domestic considerations, and emerging global trends. Erdogan may continue to assert Turkey’s regional influence, particularly in the Middle East and Eastern Mediterranean. As the global order evolves, Erdogan may aim to position Turkey as a key player in regional dynamics, actively participating in conflicts, alliances, and diplomatic negotiations. The global order is characterized by changing alliances and realignments. Erdogan’s agenda may include navigating these shifts to ensure Turkey’s strategic interests and establish partnerships that align with his vision for the country. This may involve forging closer ties with emerging powers, strengthening existing alliances, or seeking new regional partnerships.
Erdogan’s agenda is likely to prioritize economic growth and diversification. Given the evolving global order, he may focus on enhancing Turkey’s economic resilience and reducing dependence on specific sectors or markets. This could involve promoting technological innovation, attracting foreign investment, and expanding trade relationships with new markets. As global order evolves, new security challenges may emerge, such as regional conflicts, terrorism, and cyber threats. Erdogan’s agenda may include strengthening Turkey’s defense capabilities, collaborating with international partners to address security concerns, and actively participating in multilateral efforts to combat global challenges. Erdogan will need to strike a balance between domestic demands and international obligations. As the global order evolves, he may face increasing pressure to address societal issues, economic disparities, and political reforms within Turkey while simultaneously engaging in international affairs.
The writer is a student of Defense and Diplomatic Studies at Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi.
