Demographic Changes in Occupied Kashmir
After the abrogation and dissolving of Article 370 and section 35A from the Constitution of India, the status of Indian-Occupied Kashmir has been placed in a fragile position, ultimately ridding it of its autonomy that was thus far its birthright. What the causes of this bold step were is quite obvious, but we will refrain from beating a dead horse and will instead focus on the implications that it has had within the region as well as the demographic changes that have occurred as a result of the intervention of the Indian Government.
Before getting into the modern demographic change in light of the BJP’s constitutional malpractices, it would help to understand the basic history of the region. The region of Kashmir was first conquered by Asoka, a leader of the Mauryan Empire, in the year 250 BCE which led to the prevalence of Buddhism in the region for nearly 1000 years. After this, however, the sociopolitical structure of Kashmir changed drastically. Incompetent Hindu rulers, Muslim Sufi scholars from the Middle East, and the present Buddhist regime created a very interesting dynamic. With the inspirations of Syed Balbul Shah of Turkistan, the Hindu King from Ladakh, Renchan Shah, adopted Islam in early 14th century and assumed a title of Sultan Sadar-ud-Din, giving way to a five centuries long Muslim rule that was brought to an end by the Sikh Dogra rule. In this regime, Muslims were persecuted, the Azaan was banned and mosques destroyed. All this led to animosity between the Muslims and the Dogra rule as well as the British Government that heartlessly sold the land to the Dogra raja Ghulab Singh.
Since that day, the fate of Kashmir has been set as a land of strife and lost identity and the dissolving of Article 370 has only further solidified that fact in the past few years. Despite the United Nations charter to hold plebiscite in Kashmir (as it has done so far for various other disputed regions) and give the right of self-determination to the indigenous Kashmiri people, the Indian Government continues to kill Kashmiris and engage in massacres that can only be categorized as ethnic cleansing.
This act is not at all accidental, it is purely pre-meditated and documented. The Federal Home Minister for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), Mr. Rajnath Singh unveiled a plan to settle tens of thousands of non-Kashmiri Hindus within the Indian occupied regions of Jammu and Kashmir. Roughly 200,000 to 300,000 Hindus were vowed to be displaced in disclosed and undisclosed Hindu townships within the Muslim-dominated regions of Indian Occupied Kashmir. This is not only problematic considering the Kashmiri population density is majority Muslim but also throws dirt on the sovereignty and right of self-determination for the Kashmiri people. It takes from them their birthright, their land, and their identity and consolidates them within the greater identity of Indian Hindu.
The pre-Independence Census of 1941 recorded Muslims as constituting 72.41% of the population, and Hindus 25.01%. Thereafter, the proportion of Muslims in the state’s population fell gradually. Jammu and Kashmir was not a part of independent India’s first Census in 1951. The 1961 Census showed that Muslims, with a population of 24.32 lakh, constituted 68.31% of the state’s population of 35.60 lakh, while Hindus, numbering 10.13 lakh, made up 28.45%. A full 50 years later, these percentages came out identical: the Census of 2011 recorded the Muslim population at 85.67 lakh — again, 68.31% of the total population of 125.41 lakh (1.25 crore). And the Hindu population was 35.66 lakh — 28.43% of the total. (Shaikh, 2020). However, in recent years there has been greater discrepancy in these numbers as more and more Muslims in this region become the targets of ethnic cleansing and atrocities by the mainland government in the process of converting Indian occupied Kashmir into a mainland territory.
Analyzing the issue of demographic changes, the decision taken by the BJP to register roughly 2.5 million non-local voters in the Indian occupied Jammu and Kashmir elections is another factor that aids in promoting demographic changes in the region. In mid-August of last year, August 17th 2022 to be exact, the Indian house forwarded an announcement that it intended to register more than 2 million non-local voters to be enrolled in the region ahead of local polls due in November 2022. The new registrants could increase the voter count by more than a third, adding to the existing 7.6 million voters in the region, effectively changing the entire present demographic.
Another act by the Indian Government in changing the demographic makeup of the region is their ploy to administer domicile certificates for non-permanent residents of Indian-occupied Jammu and Kashmir, effectively declaring them residents or de facto Kashmiris. This move also includes roughly 800,000 Indian soldiers stationed in the region as well as 600,000 migrant laborers that will be granted domicile status in the coming years. Previously, this status was withheld from outsiders and was only offered to individuals who could prove that they were in fact Kashmiri by blood and thus made buying local land, whether through wedding a Kashmiri resident or through financial agreements null or impossible. But, through this new act where people who have resided in the region for more than 15 years or students who have studied here for 7 years, and/or have passed their class 10 or class 12 exams from here are eligible for domicile certification.
So, from what we have seen so far, it has become increasingly obvious that India intends to completely overturn the indigenous demography of the region of Jammu and Kashmir and to rid Kashmiris of their right to self-determination and sovereignty. Once the Indian government can successfully implant outsiders and non-local entities within the disputed regions (especially ones in Muslim majority areas), they can effectively hold plebiscite according to the UN charter and then claim that it’s just and fair that those living in the region want to be annexed with India. Although some may label this declaration far-fetched but judging from recent events, who’s to deny its probability?
The writer is currently studying at International Islamic University, Islamabad (IIUI).