Changing Demographics of Kashmir & Its Impacts on the Nature of Kashmir Dispute
For more than six decades, the Kashmir conflict has been a source of contention, with both Pakistan and India claiming complete control over the region. The demographics of the area, which is one of the most militarized zones in the world, have shaped the conflict’s politics. Kashmiri population is divided into approximately 10 million people in Indian-administered Jammu and Kashmir and 4.5 million in Pakistani-administered Kashmir, with Muslims constituting the majority.
The region has been a site of numerous armed conflicts and skirmishes, with both countries accusing each other of violating the ceasefire agreement. The region has been plagued by human rights abuses, including extrajudicial killings, forced disappearances, and torture. The residents of the region have been living under the constant threat of violence, making it difficult for them to lead normal lives.
In 2019, the Indian government revoked Article 370 and 35-A of the Indian Constitution, after which Kashmir special autonomous status was granted to Kashmir. With this bold move, the BJP led government illegally annexed the state of Jammu and Kashmir, bifurcating it and integrating it into the Indian Union. The real aim behind this move was to follow the Israeli pattern of Jewish settlement in Palestine and bringing long term demographic changes by allowing non-Kashmiris to buy land there.
This move was met with widespread condemnation from the international community, as it was blatant violation of United Nations Security Council (UNSC) resolutions. There have been many UNSC resolutions on Kashmir, dating back to 1948 which call for a peaceful resolution to the dispute between India and Pakistan over the region. These resolutions called for a plebiscite to be held in order to determine the wishes of the people of Jammu and Kashmir regarding their future political status. However, Indian government’s actions in 2019 effectively nullified these resolutions and ignored the wishes of local people of Kashmir.
The Indian government’s actions were particularly egregious because they contravened UNSC Resolution 38 which was passed in 1948. Paragraph 2 of this resolution clearly states, “Neither party to the dispute can bring about a material change in the situation of Jammu and Kashmir”. The annexation of Kashmir also had far-reaching consequences for the people of region. It led to severe crackdown on civil liberties, with widespread human rights abuses, arbitrary detentions, and censorship of the press.
The year 2022 was a turning point for the people of Kashmir. In May 2022, India’s Delimitation Commission made a shocking statement that sent shockwaves throughout the state of Jammu and Kashmir. The commission announced a plan to carve out new electoral constituencies, with the intention of giving Jammu greater representation in the state assembly. The aim behind this move was to reduce the political weight of Muslims in the assembly, and shift the balance towards Hindus.
According to the last census conducted in 2011, Muslims constitute over 68% of population while Hindus represent around 28%. The Indian government’s Delimitation plan was seen as an attempt to turn the Muslim majority into a minority, by diluting their political power through the creation of new electoral constituencies. This move was seen as the “Violation of Principle of One Person-One vote”, and an attempt to undermine the democratic process in Kashmir.
The changes in domicile rules in Delhi have led to a significant shift in demographics of region as well. Over 3.4 million domicile certificates have been issued to non-Kashmiris, making them eligible for certain rights and privileges in the area. These changes were the implementation of the abrogation of Article 370 and 35A of the Indian Constitution in 2019. In July 2022, the chief election officer in the occupied Valley announced that voting rights would be extended to any Indian citizen, including temporary residents. This move was expected to add almost 2.5 million additional voters to the electoral rolls. This announcement has been met with widespread anger and resentment domestic and worldwide with leaders of All Parties Hurriyat Conference as well as traditionally pro-India politicians condemning the move as blatant attempt to change the region’s demographics. Farooq Abdullah while addressing the people stated, “The inclusion of non-locals was a clear-cut ploy to disenfranchise the people of Jammu and Kashmir”.
Despite facing widespread criticism several times, Modi government has persisted in its efforts to exert control over the occupied territory. In addition to manipulate the election process through gerrymandering and granting voting rights to non-locals, the government has also taken steps to seize control of prominent religious sites and properties across the region. Last year, BJP authorities seized the Jammu and Kashmir Waqf Board, which controlled all properties associated with Muslim religious practices. In addition to this, the government has also targeted religious leaders and scholars, arresting many of them and banning prayers in mosques across Kashmir. These measures are justified under the guise of cracking down on the banned group Jamaat-i-Islami.
The BJP’s actions in Kashmir have not only been limited to political and religious aspects, but also to cultural ones. One of the most significant attacks on Kashmiri culture has been the erosion of the status of Urdu language. In 2020, government passed the legislation that ended Urdu’s exclusive status making Hindi, Kashmiri and Dogri as official languages. There are now moves to change the script of Kashmiri language from Nastalik to Devanagri. People of Kashmir see it as an attempt to impose foreign script on them and they argue that Nastaliq script is crucial aspect of their identity and changing it would be akin to erasing a part of their history and culture. These actions included forced displacement of Muslims, destruction of historical and cultural landmarks, and suppression of Kashmiri language and culture. were a clear attempt to disempower the Muslim population of Kashmir, who have long been at the center of conflict between India and Pakistan.
Despite the ongoing conflict, the people of Kashmir have not lost hope. They continue to call for a peaceful resolution of the conflict and an end to human rights abuses they have been subjected to. The international community must take notice of these actions and put pressure on India to respect the rights of people of Kashmir. As long as the conflict continues, it will be a source of tension between Pakistan and India and will continue to cause suffering for the people of Kashmir.
The writer is currently studying at Fatima Jinnah Women University (FJWU).