Iran Nuclear Deal; Challenges and Prospects
Officially, the Iran nuclear deal is known as the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, or JCPOA, and it was signed in 2015 by Iran and several world powers, including the United States. Under the shadow of this agreement, Iran agreed to dismantle much of its nuclear program and allow international inspections in exchange for billions of dollars in relief sanctions. Proponents of the agreement claimed that it would reduce the likelihood of conflict between Iran and its rival states, including Israel and Palestine.
The agreement is now in jeopardy after US President Donald Trump withdrew the US from it in 2018. This gesture heightened tensions between the two countries, as Iran resumed some of its activities in retaliation for certain pronominal attacks. In 2021, with a change in regime, there is going to be change in relationship, as President Joe Biden stated that the US will return to the deal if Iran returns to all of the terms. Although it appeared promising, it still raises the question of whether or not everyone will agree to terms and return to one point.
The participants in the negotiations with Iran are five prominent members of the UN Security Council (China, France, Russia, the United Kingdom, and the United States), as well as Germany, known collectively as the p5+1. It was also attended by the European Union. Though the majority of states supported and were part of this agreement, states such as Saudi Arabia stated that they should have been informed because they were the most affected, while Israel had completely opposed this deal. In the absence of an agreement, Iran may well have produced enough nuclear weapons to cause trouble for the world and possibly lead to a new crisis in the region. The goal of this agreement was to avoid that chaos. Another goal was to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program so that if Tehran decides to pursue a nuclear weapon in the future, it will take at least a year, giving international bodies time to respond. This agreement also relieves Iran of international sanctions that were causing financial hardship in the country.
Iran agreed not to produce large amounts of uranium or plutonium, both of which are used in the production of nuclear weapons, under the terms of this agreement. A Joint Commission was formed with representatives from all negotiating parties to inspect and monitor Iran to ensure that it is not violating any sanctions, and Iran agreed that foreign teams would visit Iran for monitoring and assessment.
If Iran violates the agreement, the UN Security Council can vote on whether to extend sanctions relief or not, and sanctions will be lifted permanently after ten years through a snap back mechanism. Although the US announced in 2020 that sanctions on Iran would be maintained, P5 members objected because the US could not issue any orders or suggestions because it had left the deal in 2018.
Taking into account the current situation and how closely Iran is adhering to the agreement, there has been much retaliation on certain aspects, such as in 2020, in January, when Iranian official Qaseem Soleimani was killed in a target killing by the US, Iran began producing Uranium and no longer limited its production of Uranium. Following the assassination of a prominent scientist in November, the Iranian parliament passed a law, which resulted in a sustained increase in Uranium production.
This agreement had to overcome numerous obstacles. One of the major challenges seems to be a lack of trust between the US and Iran, as the US withdrew from the agreement in 2018, resulting in the targeting of Iranian officials and Iran’s return to Uranium production. It has created a schism between the two states. The perceived decline of the United States’ influence in the Middle East is also playing a significant role. Another challenge that this deal faces is the changing postures of the Gulf states. The struggle between Principalists, Reformists, Centrists, and Conservatives is also important. Another major obstacle to this agreement is the IRGC’s perception of needing nuclear weapons due to volatile geopolitical landscapes. Another problematic stigma is Saudi opposition and Israeli resentment.
This agreement is very important for Iran because it stabilizes its economy, which has been disrupted by international sanctions, as billions of dollars are given to Iran under strict international supervision. Prior to the JCPOA, the country’s inflation rate was quite high, and the economy was on the verge of default due to international sanctions on energy resources, but this agreement led to a decrease in inflation, stabilized exchange rates, and improved exports, with oil exports now exceeding 2.1 million barrels per day.
The JCPOA is an ideal agreement, but its fate is uncertain. The JCPOA signatories want Tehran and the US to return to the deal and get things back on track, but both states’ responses have been inconsistent and indecisive. The Iranian elections and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine have complicated matters. During his campaign, Joe Biden stated that he would prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon, that he would bring the US back into the deal if Iran returned to initial terms, and that he would work to strengthen the JCPOA. As a result, the future of this transaction remains uncertain.
The writer is currently studying at National Defense University Islamabad & is also working as Research Associate at IPCA.