The evolving global dynamics constantly influence the behaviors, laws, and rules by which states interact with one another in the global system. For decades, India and Pakistan’s rivalry has fostered nuclear weaponization. The buildup of massive nuclear arsenals raises severe concerns about South Asia’s strategic stability, as well as a regional security dilemma. The objective of India to establish regional superiority is apparent. India is committed to creating additional armaments to confront China and Pakistan in the region. Pakistan’s operational and strategic plans, on the other hand, are in place to counter the potential threats arising from India’s strategic policies and conventional nuclear buildups. Pakistan justifies its counter-buildups as a deterrent factor due to India’s assertive defense policies.
Nuclear deterrence is a balancing factor in theory; Governments will avoid conflict due to the threat of mutual assured destruction (MAD). The dilemma here is, what is the end objective of weapons production? Both states are recklessly spending a significant portion of their budget on weaponization. Global actors such as the United States, China, and Russia play a vital role in influencing security competition in the region. The strategic competition gained traction following Pakistan and India’s nuclear tests in 1998. Prior to it, there was an arms race, but it was less intense. The concept of equal vengeance was fostered by the reciprocal evolution of weapons. With a keen eye, a large economic divide between India and Pakistan can be observed. The flexibility of Indian economic growth allows India to spend on military expenditure, but this is not the case with Pakistan. Due to its frail economy, Pakistan is pursuing strategic competition by compromising in other fields. India and Pakistan have engaged in ceaseless reflexive attempts to acquire an advantage. Under the guise of “Credible Minimum Deterrence”, States are stockpiling nuclear weapons. These perilous steps are fueling an arms race in South Asia by encouraging other actors to follow suit. States are being driven to modernize their defense and survivability capabilities. Such weapons race characteristics will destabilize South Asia, creating a security predicament in the region; with disastrous implications for the future generations.
Various ideological shifts occurred over the course of last 75 years in India and Pakistan. Both states have a long history of intolerance, grievances, and extreme mistrust. The failure of the “Sunderji Doctrine” was a fundamental cause for India’s adoption of the “Cold Star Theory.” However, India presently felt obligated to reverse its “No first Use Policy“. In order to balance strategic stability. On the other hand; Pakistan adopted a policy of “Full Spectrum Deterrence” based on the “Action to Reaction Theory”. These nuclear policies appear to be altering in response to the strategic environment and intensity of the situation rather than remaining constant.
India Presently Feels Obligated to Reverse its “No first Use Policy“.
Above all, the development of nuclear weapons in South Asia is essential, as it might lead to widespread devastation. To confront the enemy, Pakistan and India have developed cruise missiles, tactical nuclear weapons for battle fields, nuclear-capable aircraft, land-based ballistic missiles, and sea-based nuclear weapons. The Indian technological equipment includes the Agni series, the Russian S-400, hypersonic glide vehicles, and the Brahmos, but Pakistan’s acquisition of Ababeel, NASR, and the Shaheen series prevails deterrence in the region. India is currently on its quest to acquire advanced cryogenic and other associated technologies to strengthen its space program. Because Pakistan and India have not ratified the NPT, it can be assumed that South Asia will evolve into an epicenter for sophisticated technological weaponry.
The indirect intervention of global players may also aggravate regional instability. The United States has long been interested in the region, particularly in maintaining its close ties with Pakistan and India; however, it is more focused on attaining its own interests while maintaining its supremacy. Regional dynamics have transitioned from the cold war period to Indo-pacific competitiveness, resulting in a significant shift in America’s favorable behavior from Pakistan to India. The US-India cooperation is having a negative influence on regional stability since the US assisted India in strengthening its offensive and defensive capabilities. Russia also plays an important role in nuclear trading. Nonetheless, due to economic interconnectivity, China is accumulating immense strength and exerting significant influence on its bordering neighbors. Pakistan receives substantial nuclear technical apparatus from China. The projection of considerable power makes the South Asian region more susceptible and exposed to a never-lasting conflict and continued arms race amongst the states.
A favorable shift in this antagonistic fraction is possible in the future. Instead of setting an aspirational aim, states should take a more pragmatic approach. The environment is currently less conducive to “Friendly Relations“, but the door to “Cooperation and Collaboration” remains open. The development of economic interconnectivity would result in mutual benefits. Time demands that policymakers be adaptable and prudent in their policymaking. Global powers can play an important role in breaking down barriers between two parties. They can serve as a mediator by furnishing a negotiating environment between the two nuclear powers.
Finally, as nuclear weaponized states, India and Pakistan have a predisposition to explode the threshold. Both sides are unlikely to back down from development of nuclear weapons, but further advances can be averted. Any miscalculation or misinterpretation would aggravate serious tensions in the region, endangering not just regional security but also international peace and stability.
The writer is currently studying at Fatima Jinnah Women University, Rawalpindi.
