After two decades of fighting an unending conflict in Afghanistan, United States has announced to completely withdraw its forces by September 11.[i] During the past two decades, three US presidents, George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump failed to deliver on their promises regarding Afghanistan, a country that is considered as the Graveyard of empires. Though the announcement of withdrawal has been made by United States, peace in Afghanistan is still far to be achieved.
The future roadmap of Afghanistan was expected to be decided in a much-anticipated Istanbul conference, which has currently been postponed until the end of Ramadan. On the other hand, foreign ministers of Turkey, Pakistan, and Afghanistan in a trilateral meeting in Turkey have called on the Afghan Taliban to reaffirm their commitment for an immediate ceasefire, ending the violence and ensuring a favorable atmosphere to pursue peace talks.[ii] The quest for a diplomatic solution to the Afghan conflict is based on the widely held consensus that no military solution exists, and a long-term power-sharing agreement amongst the stakeholders is the only path to ensured peace.
As the Biden administration announced to review the peace deal between the Taliban and the United States, uncertainty in the Afghan conflict has tremendously increased. Overlapping developments have diminished the Doha Agreement while different stakeholders of Afghanistan have presented renewed peace plans to decide the future of the country. Around 25 peace plans were been presented by the political leadership of Afghanistan to the National Peace Council including the peace plan of President Ghani while the United States had also presented its future peace plan for Afghanistan. The Afghan government is expected to present one peace plan in the Istanbul summit which reportedly has two options for Afghanistan to move forward. It includes a presidential and non-presidential system while a timeframe for the transitional period has not been decided yet. Though a final roadmap will be decided in the Istanbul summit, yet President Ghani on multiple occasions has strongly opposed the concept of a transition government,[iii] however wholistically Afghanistan is left with no other choice. Domestic stakeholders of the Afghan conflict are divided. Afghan government and Taliban present completely deviating views about the future of Afghanistan. While presenting his peace plan at the Ninth Heart of Asia summit in Tajikistan, President Ghani reiterated that elections must take place before he steps aside. On the other hand, Taliban have also recently announced their idea of an Islamic system in Afghanistan. Taliban have opposed the democratic system in the country and said that the restoration of a true Islamic system can ensure a prosperous and successful future for Afghanistan.
Having such divergent ideas of peace, the idea of transitional government in Afghanistan is also least expected to be successful. First of all, President Ghani will make his utmost efforts to negate the idea of transitional setup however, if a transitional setup is being agreed upon by the Taliban and the Afghan government in the Istanbul summit, political setup in Afghanistan is anticipated to be in chaos due to conflicting ideas for the future of Afghanistan. Taliban will influence the setup to rewrite the new constitution according to the Islamic principles while the Afghan government will make their utmost efforts to have a democratic constitution, that is acceptable for the international stakeholders. Moreover, Taliban will also attempt to influence the security infrastructure of the country. The influence of US intelligence & ISAF will be minimized which may also create a rift between the transitional setup and the international stakeholders. Another bleak possibility is a civil war and takeover of Taliban in Afghanistan, however, that is least expected as all the regional and international stakeholders of Afghan conflict have negated the acceptance of Islamic Emirate as the rules of Afghanistan.[iv]
Peace and stability in Afghanistan is conditional to unity amongst the Afghans themselves. An ideal transitional setup in Afghanistan will include representation from all the political parties including Taliban. Future of the state will be decided during the transitional timeframe that includes future system of government that should be acceptable to Afghans themselves as well as the international community and rewriting a democratic constitution by consensus that represents the Islamic values. Chaos and instability in Afghanistan will minimize with the passage of time, if political stability is achieved by the transitional setup. It can be argued that after almost two decades of conflict, even if now the future of Afghanistan is uncertain, United States claim of winning the war is not more than a self-appeasing statement.
The writer works as Founder & Executive Director at IPCA.
[i] https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/biden-us-troop-withdrawal-afghanistan/2021/04/13/918c3cae-9beb-11eb-8a83-3bc1fa69c2e8_story.html
[ii] https://tribune.com.pk/story/2296374/turkey-pakistan-afghanistan-call-on-taliban-to-commit-to-afghan-peace-talks
