Kashmir Conflict Since August 5th,2019: A Threat to Regional Peace and Stability
Introduction
Kashmir issue is one of the longest running disputes in contemporary times and has been a prime reason of conflict between India and Pakistan for more than seven decades. Indian abrogation of Article 370 and Article 35-A of the Indian constitution through a presidential decree issued on August 5th, 2019 and the move to bifurcate Jammu and Kashmir in two union territories has intensified the relations between the two state. Curfew imposed by India in the occupied region has almost halted the life of residents of Jammu & Kashmir in addition to grave human rights violations committed by the Indian forces. Peace and stability of South Asian region is currently at stake as India is being dominated by Modi led RSS agenda and introduction of CAA and NRC bill in India has aggravated the internal security situation of the country while anti-muslim policies are being pursued to suppress the lives of more than 200 million muslims in India. Furthermore, Indian hegemonic designs across the region and its conflict with all the South Asian states including China, Nepal, Bangladesh and Srilanka has seriously threatened the peace and security of the region.
Internationalizing Kashmir Conflict & Pakistan’s Kashmir Policy
Kashmir dispute has gained substantial international attention during last one year due to an aggressive Kashmir policy pursued by Pakistan to highlight the attrocities committed by the Indian forces in the occupied region. Guided tours were arranged for the representatives of international community; however, they were not allowed to interact freely with the local population. Various international delegations including UNSC Secretary-General visited Pakistan and were extensively briefed on the Kashmir conflict as well as situation across Line of Control (LoC), however, mere statements were given by the international leaders. Despite repeated offers of President Trump to mediate the longstanding issue of Kashmir between India and Pakistan, India has constantly maintained its position of calling it a bilateral issue with Pakistan while at the same time accusing Pakistan of cross border terrorism as well.
Pakistan’s Kashmir policy has been aggressive and challenging during last one year. Prime Minister Modi led RSS agenda has been exposed on all the relevant platforms while Indian aggression in occupied Jammu & Kashmir has been projected to the world. Pakistan holds a principle position regarding this issue and believes that Kashmir is a disputed area and that under the UN Resolutions, Kashmiris shall be given the right of complete self-determination. No unilateral action in Kashmir is acceptable to Pakistan. Furthermore, Pakistan believes that Kashmir is an unfinished agenda of partition and any change in the territorial status of Kashmir is an infringement on its demography and a violation of territorial jurisdiction by India. Simla Agreement signed between Pakistan and India in July 1972 highlights the fact that the two states are to settle their differences by peaceful means through bilateral negotiations or by any other peaceful means mutually agreed upon between them while neither side shall unilaterally alter the situation. Article 6 of the agreement also acknowledges that Kashmir shall remain disputed until its final settlement between India and Pakistan. Pakistan holds its claim that India made an illegal and unilateral attempt to hijack Kashmir by revocation of Article 370 and 35A.
The issue needs to be addressed and resolved in accordance with the United Nations Security Council (UNSC) Resolution 47 which had recommended a three-step process for the resolution of the dispute. In the first step, Pakistan was asked to withdraw all its nationals that entered Kashmir for the sake of fighting. In the second step, India was asked to progressively reduce its forces to the minimum level required for law and order and in the third step, India was asked to appoint a plebiscite administrator nominated by the United Nations who would conduct a free and impartial plebiscite. While both the states acknowledged and accepted the resolution as it was adopted on 21 April 1948, following to which a temporary truce was also achieved, disagreements on the process of demilitarization halted further progress on UN resolution.
Over decades, multiple UNSC resolutions on Kashmir as well as reports of UNMOGIP highlighted severe human attrocities committed by the Indian forces in the occupied region. Thousands of people have lost their lives and thousands have been injured in addition to unaccounted victims of the conflict. Harassment and rape of women and children is also a serious issue in Kashmir and has far reaching implications for the Kashmir society. Independent observers and international media must pay attention in explaining this aspect of occupational forces to the world to solicit more sympathetic response from humanitarian organizations, respective parliaments, international governments and more importantly general public.
Aggravated nature of conflict has also worsened the situation across Line of Control (LoC) where incidents of unprovoked firing regularly happen resulting in loss of human lives. A single conflict between the two states can bring both on the brink of a nuclear war and hence it is important that Indian ideology of Hindutva and expansionism must be exposed. India has already climbed the escalation ladder of conflict by trying to blacklist Pakistan in FATF and later on by conducting 27th February, 2019 Balakot surgical strikes. Indian moves and actions pose a direct threat to regional peace and stability and international bodies as well as states around the world need to seriously revise their relations with India. Economic terms prosper and prevail in situation of peace and prosperity, however Nazism ideology currently prevailed in India is not only a threat to India its self, but the entire region.
Policy Options for Pakistan to Address the Kashmir Conflict
While Pakistan’s Kashmir strategy remained aggressive over last one year, the country needs to re-evaluate and revise its strategic decisions regarding its aggressive approach not only with reference to Kashmir, but India as well. Few of the policy options recommended to address the Kashmir conflict are highlighted as below;
- A humanitarian corridor needs to be established in Kashmir by UN, as is developed in all the international conflicts. Despite the fact that India disagrees to the notion as it has not allowed an UNMOGIP office in the region as well, If UN forms a humanitarian corridor in Kashmir, it would be a great achievement for Kashmir conflict as reports submitted from that quarter would be objective and un-biased and would actually highlight the human attrocities being committed in occupied Kashmir by the Indian forces.
- Pakistan needs to focus on economic development as economically weak state has less diplomatic weightage in its argument irrespective of how much legally strong they may be. An economically and diplomatically strong Pakistan can better not only its own national interests but also do better for Kashmiris.
- While practicing the traditional diplomacy, Pakistan cannot influence the mindset of the people therefore our diplomats need to focus on public diplomacy internationally to bring about a qualitative change in the policies of the hosts governments. Furthermore, Pakistan needs to call a meeting of all the regional states who maintain an un-resolved dispute with India. A collective effort to sideline India would pave better results than the individual efforts from all the states.
- Indian aggression across the region needs to be highlighted on all the international media. A full-fledge international campaign highlighting miseries of Kashmiris and extra-judicial killing and torture of Indian forces in the occupied region will depict and project Indian extremist agenda.
- Pakistan also needs to engage all the permenant members of UNSC and actively engage with them to initiate economic diplomacy. Kashmir conflict will be properly heard on the international stage once Pakistan will align its interests with the global powers.
Conclusion
Peace and stability in South Asian region exceedingly depends on bilateral relations of Pakistan and India which cannot be at peace if Kashmir issue remains unaddressed and unresolved. Time still stands for international organizations and influential states to resolve Kashmir dispute in accordance with the UN resolutions and wishes of Kashmiri people, else a single incident of military engagement may provoke a nuclear war between Pakistan and India which may anytime turn in to reality leading to complete destruction and chaos across the entire region.
The writer is currently working as Executive Director IPCA.